Mackenzie Investments publishes regular commentaries to help advisors and investors make sense of the markets, review the recent performances of funds and anticipate future outlooks. Read Mackenzie Investments’ quarterly, monthly and team commentaries for more information.
Latest Quarterly Commentary
During Q3 2017, Mackenzie Global Dividend Fund (Series F) returned -0.9%, and has now returned 14.2%, annualized, since portfolio manager change. This compares with the MSCI World Net Return Index ($CDN) Q3 return of 0.9%, and 11.9%, annualized, since portfolio manager change. Stock selection in information technology and consumer staples detracted from performance in Q3 2017.
Global equity markets were highly volatile in the third quarter with a notable divergence. While the US markets continued to exhibit resiliency, the emerging markets fell sharply as global trade policies and rising rates continue to weigh in on global growth.
This past quarter was headlined by a number of market concerns: eleventh hour NAFTA negotiations, the new Italian government’s budget, on-going Brexit negotiations, and more trade war tensions between China and the U.S. There has been increased volatility in stock prices.
This year, US stock markets seem to have given investors somewhat distinctive price action in each quarter. In Q1 there were large swings in volatility and prices, after what had been a low volatility experience in 2018.
US small and mid cap equities continued their strong performance in the third quarter . The Russell 2500 index returned 4.7% in US Dollars (2.9% in Canadian Dollars). Technology and Health Care outpaced the market by far, while Producer Durables and Utilities also did well. The only sector to decline was Consumer Staples.
Global equity markets continued its positive trend in the third quarter in 2018. U.S. market was strong which continued to be driven by the Information Technology sector. Both European and Asian markets were modestly higher in the quarter, but the gains were muted when measured in Canadian dollar terms. Canadian market lagged the global markets, with the S&P/TSX Composite Index returned slightly negative during the period.
‘The U.S. vs. the World’ was one of the key themes that emerged in Q3. Equities continued to outperform bonds over the quarter, with the MSCI ACWI returning 4.7% in local currencies and 2.5% in CAD terms. This compares favorably to -0.2% on the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index hedged to CAD and -1.1% on the equivalent Canadian bond index.
The portfolio management team remains optimistic on the outlook for Canadian equity markets. The Canadian economy is expected to be the beneficiary of strong global economic growth driven primarily by the United States. This backdrop is expected to result in decent earnings growth for the overall market which should be positive for equity market returns. We believe earnings growth and a re-rating will drive Canadian equity market returns in the coming period as valuations are increasingly attractive with the market trading below historical average valuation levels and a significant discount to U.S. benchmarks.
While US equity markets continued their near-linear upward trajectory, emerging markets and the resources sector experienced a substantial set-back during Q3/2018.
The third quarter of 2017 started where the month of June ended with a negative return of 0.71% for the CFE category for the month of July. Luckily, the next two months were both positive, allowing the CFE Category to return +2.06% for the Quarter.