Updates from our Chief Economist

June 8, 2022

It’s been an eventful year for bonds, to say the least. The global bond market has lost 11.1% of its value since the start of 2022 in a sell-off that went hand in hand with equities.

June 9, 2022

Mackenzie economists, Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau, shine a spotlight on the latest market and global economic trends.

May 3, 2022

As commodity prices surged in early 2022, deeply undervalued emerging market currencies of producer countries gained sharply against the US dollar. The Canadian dollar, far less so.

April 6, 2022

As central banks continue to fight against inflation, an environment of rising short-term interest rates has caused the yield curve to invert, which could hurt the global economy.

March 7, 2022

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has raised its policy interest rate for the first time since October 2018. While it will increase debt servicing costs for many Canadian mortgage holders, there is little risk to the financial sector. 

February 2, 2022

In the past, emerging market valuations have been vulnerable to a tightening in global financial conditions. But the macro context is different in 2022.

January 10, 2022

Despite new restrictions brought on by the Omicron variant of COVID-19, global growth should remain solid in 2022 as inflation is expected to moderate. While this scenario would be constructive for equities, there are risks.

November 16, 2021

Todd Mattina, Chief Economist, joins the Mackenzie Podcast to share his view on Modern Monetary Theory and what challenges may be associated with it.

November 2, 2021

Surging demand for manufactured goods has driven the prices of energy and industrial materials to highs not seen since the early 2010s. As central banks prepare to fight inflation, currencies of major commodity producers are set to rise.

October 5, 2021

As the Bank of Canada considers replacing its inflation-control target and monetary policy framework for the first time in 25 years, what could this change mean for markets and the economy?

September 7, 2021

While the campaign remains in its early innings, the electoral race looks more unsettled than just a few weeks ago.

September 7, 2021

While some have interpreted the negative surprise as a dreary reality check for the Canadian economy, a look under the hood shows that the weak GDP print does not necessarily signal the beginning of a slowdown.

August 4, 2021

With the peak rate of expansion and policy accommodation already behind us, the economic cycle is transitioning to a new phase. The challenge for policymakers in developed economies is a heightened risk of “unforced errors” in guiding the recovery through the transition to mid-cycle growth.

July 6, 2021

Loose monetary policies, large fiscal deficits and a sharply recovering global economy have heightened investor concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. Following a transitory increase in prices, we believe that the balance of risks is tilted towards stable inflation near central bank targets in the long term.

June 2, 2021

As the pandemic risk begins to recede, macro imbalances could become new sources of risk. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the implications for asset allocation.

May 4, 2021

The Bank of Canada appears set to raise rates well ahead of the Federal Reserve. Will the Fed shift its policy stance? Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the forces affecting the central banks’ divergence.

April 6, 2021

Next on Democrats’ policy checklist is a wide-ranging infrastructure plan, a potential catalyst to both short-term and long-term growth. But will it live up to its hype? Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the likely impact that infrastructure spending will have on the US economy.

March 2, 2021

While mainstream adoption of the leading cryptocurrencies for daily transactions is still unlikely, they have potential as financial assets, possibly as a replacement or complement to gold. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the challenges and the opportunities for Bitcoin.

February 2, 2021

New US President Joe Biden has unveiled his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP). The program should provide a short-term boost to economic recovery and jobs, according to Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau.

January 12, 2021

The global pandemic put a damper on economic activity through 2020. With mass vaccinations progressing slowly but surely, economies around the world are expected to rebound strongly in 2021. What does this mean for inflation? Mackenzie’s Economists Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau share their analysis.

January 8, 2021

Mackenzie’s Todd Mattina shares his predictions for the economy for 2021, including the speed of recovery, the role of economic stimulus, interest rates and inflation. 

December 16, 2020

With interest rates at (or near) all-time lows and high economic uncertainty, 2021 could be extremely challenging for investors. More than ever, taking a long-term approach and being well diversified is key, say Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau.

November 16, 2020

Todd Mattina, Senior Vice President, Chief Economist, Team Co-Lead of Mackenzie Multi-Asset Strategies Team provides his thoughts on market responses to the 2020 US Election.

November 12, 2020

Joe Biden may be headed to the White House, but the Democrats’ Blue Wave failed to crest. The resulting divided Congress could be the best-case outcome for markets, according to Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau.

October 5, 2020

When the pandemic is finally behind us and essential crisis relief programs can be safely tapered off, governments will need credible multi-year plans to reign in public debt. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau call for growth-friendly policies to reduce budget deficits post-pandemic.

September 24, 2020

In the Throne Speech on September 23, the federal government outlined its plans to fight the pandemic-related downturn in the near term and restructure the economy in the longer term. Economists Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau share their insights and analysis.

September 8, 2020

As a result of the pandemic and other economic factors, low interest rates appear poised to persist. Investors may need to shift their focus on long-term asset allocation to satisfy their retirement income needs. Economists Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau have ideas for you to consider.

September 2, 2020

The fiscal and monetary responses to the COVID crises have led to unprecedented public deficits and money printing. Economist Jules Boudreau discusses and compares current policy reactions to that of Modern Monetary Theory.

August 7, 2020

Near zero risk-free rates are expected for a prolonged period, supporting higher yielding assets. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina discusses how shifting asset yields and liquidity conditions impact multi-asset portfolios.

July 10, 2020

In today’s low-yield environment, the traditional 60/40 asset allocation is expected to generate lower returns in the next decade compared to the exceptional performance of the last 40 years.

June 4, 2020

Recent gains in global stock markets suggest investors are more optimistic about the outlook. Surveys of economist forecasts point to a bounce in global economic activity next year following a “sudden stop” in 2020 to enforce social distancing.

May 5, 2020

In this month’s note, we provide an update on the economic outlook and discuss why financial markets appear optimistic despite an unprecedented economic slowdown. We believe that forward-looking investors are looking past current economic weakness to focus on an apparent peak in new cases and deaths from the pandemic, the expected re-opening of major economies and robust policy measures to replace lost incomes.

March 27, 2020

Summary:

• Stopping the pandemic spread while minimizing the steep economic cost is the key policy challenge
• Policymakers have acted quickly with strong measures to backstop the economy and credit markets
• Policy stimulus should strive to prevent a further deterioration in demand and unemployment, but policymakers cannot offset the negative supply-side impact of a prolonged economic lockdown
• The macro outlook depends on the duration of social distancing to contain the epidemic
• Long horizon investors should continue periodic portfolio rebalancing and ensure adequate liquidity to avoid selling assets at distressed prices

March 12, 2020

The worsening coronavirus outbreak and oil price war have sharply increased financial market turbulence. The number of coronavirus cases is expected to rise sharply over coming weeks in North America and Europe based on the views of respected epidemiologists. Even if fatalities remain low, essential measures to contain the virus are expected to disrupt global supply chains and weaken consumer confidence. Compounding the economic shock from the coronavirus is Saudi Arabia’s oil price war, whichcomes at an inopportune time for the global economy. Ramping up oil supply to boost market share and displace US shaleproducers has increased credit risk in the high yield energy sector.