Updates from our Chief Economist

Todd Mattina

Senior Vice President, Chief Economist, Portfolio Manager, Team Co-Lead

Mackenzie Multi-Asset Strategies Team

Todd Mattina, Senior Vice President, Chief Economist, Portfolio Manager and Co-Lead of Mackenzie Multi-Asset Strategies Team, shares monthly insights on the economy, markets and more.

Careful what you wish for

November 4, 2022

It’s easy to draw a line from China’s zero-COVID policy to the global supply chain disruptions that have driven global inflation. But scrapping these restrictions might not be a panacea that some expect.

Europe’s macro struggles point to a more divergent world

October 5, 2022

Through the pandemic, global economies converged as countries faced similar challenges and opportunities. But regional divergence in macro trends has made a noted comeback in 2022. 

Monthly macro and markets update

October 5, 2022

Mackenzie economists, Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau, shine a spotlight on the latest market and global economic trends.

Where are U.S. interest rates headed?

September 9, 2022

Interest rate volatility continues to impact the markets. Expect more of the same as the Fed tries using rates to suppress inflation and avoid recession.

Is the U.S. dollar poised to decline?

August 9, 2022

So far in 2022, the U.S. dollar has gained against all advanced-economy currencies. The global impact has been broad and hard hitting, but relief may be on the way.

What we’ll be watching in July

July 11, 2022

As economic growth forecasts are revised lower, the global equity decline has spilled over into the commodities market. 

What’s driving bond yields: a look under the hood

June 8, 2022

It’s been an eventful year for bonds, to say the least. The global bond market has lost 11.1% of its value since the start of 2022 in a sell-off that went hand in hand with equities.

Monthly macro and markets update

June 9, 2022

Mackenzie economists, Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau, shine a spotlight on the latest market and global economic trends.

What’s holding back the Canadian dollar?

May 3, 2022

As commodity prices surged in early 2022, deeply undervalued emerging market currencies of producer countries gained sharply against the US dollar. The Canadian dollar, far less so.

The potential impact of rising rates

April 6, 2022

As central banks continue to fight against inflation, an environment of rising short-term interest rates has caused the yield curve to invert, which could hurt the global economy.

Higher mortgage rates are coming

March 7, 2022

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has raised its policy interest rate for the first time since October 2018. While it will increase debt servicing costs for many Canadian mortgage holders, there is little risk to the financial sector. 

Emerging markets: Worth a look?

February 2, 2022

In the past, emerging market valuations have been vulnerable to a tightening in global financial conditions. But the macro context is different in 2022.

Keep an eye on these two risks in 2022

January 10, 2022

Despite new restrictions brought on by the Omicron variant of COVID-19, global growth should remain solid in 2022 as inflation is expected to moderate. While this scenario would be constructive for equities, there are risks.

Todd Mattina on Modern Monetary Theory

November 16, 2021

Todd Mattina, Chief Economist, joins the Mackenzie Podcast to share his view on Modern Monetary Theory and what challenges may be associated with it.

The table is set for commodity currencies

November 2, 2021

Surging demand for manufactured goods has driven the prices of energy and industrial materials to highs not seen since the early 2010s. As central banks prepare to fight inflation, currencies of major commodity producers are set to rise.

Canada’s next monetary policy framework

October 5, 2021

As the Bank of Canada considers replacing its inflation-control target and monetary policy framework for the first time in 25 years, what could this change mean for markets and the economy?

Canada’s federal election through a macro lens

September 7, 2021

While the campaign remains in its early innings, the electoral race looks more unsettled than just a few weeks ago.

Canada’s “healthy” Q2 contraction

September 7, 2021

While some have interpreted the negative surprise as a dreary reality check for the Canadian economy, a look under the hood shows that the weak GDP print does not necessarily signal the beginning of a slowdown.

Avoiding unforced errors in the mid-cycle transition

August 4, 2021

With the peak rate of expansion and policy accommodation already behind us, the economic cycle is transitioning to a new phase. The challenge for policymakers in developed economies is a heightened risk of “unforced errors” in guiding the recovery through the transition to mid-cycle growth.

High inflation, low inflation risk

July 6, 2021

Loose monetary policies, large fiscal deficits and a sharply recovering global economy have heightened investor concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. Following a transitory increase in prices, we believe that the balance of risks is tilted towards stable inflation near central bank targets in the long term.

Macro and asset allocation update

June 2, 2021

As the pandemic risk begins to recede, macro imbalances could become new sources of risk. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the implications for asset allocation.

Canadians, keep an eye on the Fed

May 4, 2021

The Bank of Canada appears set to raise rates well ahead of the Federal Reserve. Will the Fed shift its policy stance? Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the forces affecting the central banks’ divergence.

Infrastructure: Promise and Pitfalls

April 6, 2021

Next on Democrats’ policy checklist is a wide-ranging infrastructure plan, a potential catalyst to both short-term and long-term growth. But will it live up to its hype? Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the likely impact that infrastructure spending will have on the US economy.

Bitcoin: More asset than currency

March 2, 2021

While mainstream adoption of the leading cryptocurrencies for daily transactions is still unlikely, they have potential as financial assets, possibly as a replacement or complement to gold. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau examine the challenges and the opportunities for Bitcoin.

Biden’s growth gambit

February 2, 2021

New US President Joe Biden has unveiled his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP). The program should provide a short-term boost to economic recovery and jobs, according to Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau.

Why financial markets shouldn’t fear inflation

January 12, 2021

The global pandemic put a damper on economic activity through 2020. With mass vaccinations progressing slowly but surely, economies around the world are expected to rebound strongly in 2021. What does this mean for inflation? Mackenzie’s Economists Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau share their analysis.

2021 Economic Outlook

January 8, 2021

Mackenzie’s Todd Mattina shares his predictions for the economy for 2021, including the speed of recovery, the role of economic stimulus, interest rates and inflation. 

2021 Global Market Outlook

December 16, 2020

With interest rates at (or near) all-time lows and high economic uncertainty, 2021 could be extremely challenging for investors. More than ever, taking a long-term approach and being well diversified is key, say Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau.

2020 US Election - Investment strategies through volatile times

November 16, 2020

Todd Mattina, Senior Vice President, Chief Economist, Team Co-Lead of Mackenzie Multi-Asset Strategies Team provides his thoughts on market responses to the 2020 US Election.

Markets rally on a split Congress

November 12, 2020

Joe Biden may be headed to the White House, but the Democrats’ Blue Wave failed to crest. The resulting divided Congress could be the best-case outcome for markets, according to Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau.

Fighting debt with more debt

October 5, 2020

When the pandemic is finally behind us and essential crisis relief programs can be safely tapered off, governments will need credible multi-year plans to reign in public debt. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina and Economist Jules Boudreau call for growth-friendly policies to reduce budget deficits post-pandemic.

Not a time for fiscal austerity

September 24, 2020

In the Throne Speech on September 23, the federal government outlined its plans to fight the pandemic-related downturn in the near term and restructure the economy in the longer term. Economists Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau share their insights and analysis.

Shifting your retirement focus with “lower for longer” interest rates

September 8, 2020

As a result of the pandemic and other economic factors, low interest rates appear poised to persist. Investors may need to shift their focus on long-term asset allocation to satisfy their retirement income needs. Economists Todd Mattina and Jules Boudreau have ideas for you to consider.

Are central banks “borrowing” from Modern Monetary Theory?

September 2, 2020

The fiscal and monetary responses to the COVID crises have led to unprecedented public deficits and money printing. Economist Jules Boudreau discusses and compares current policy reactions to that of Modern Monetary Theory.

Yields, liquidity and asset prices

August 7, 2020

Near zero risk-free rates are expected for a prolonged period, supporting higher yielding assets. Mackenzie’s Chief Economist Todd Mattina discusses how shifting asset yields and liquidity conditions impact multi-asset portfolios.

Asset allocation for tomorrow’s uncertain economy

July 10, 2020

In today’s low-yield environment, the traditional 60/40 asset allocation is expected to generate lower returns in the next decade compared to the exceptional performance of the last 40 years.

After the Pandemic: Economic Scenarios in the Post-Crisis World

June 4, 2020

Recent gains in global stock markets suggest investors are more optimistic about the outlook. Surveys of economist forecasts point to a bounce in global economic activity next year following a “sudden stop” in 2020 to enforce social distancing.

Rebound from the Lockdown

May 5, 2020

In this month’s note, we provide an update on the economic outlook and discuss why financial markets appear optimistic despite an unprecedented economic slowdown. We believe that forward-looking investors are looking past current economic weakness to focus on an apparent peak in new cases and deaths from the pandemic, the expected re-opening of major economies and robust policy measures to replace lost incomes.

Todd's latest from social:

April 20, 2020

China’s Q1 GDP growth rate of -6.8% is the weakest since 1992, reflecting shuttered productive capacity during the lock-down. However, China has re-opened and activity is returning rapidly.


Todd's latest from social:

April 16, 2020

Government budget deficits this year are expected to surpass the 2008-09 recession. After the crisis, governments will need to rebuild fiscal space and ensure public finances are sustainable on a long-term footing.

Todd's latest from social:

April 9, 2020

Canadian job losses in March were 40% of total employment gains since the Great Recession. While many jobs are expected to return once the shutdown is over, the scale and speed of job losses highlight the urgency of supporting lost incomes.

Todd's latest from social:

April 7, 2020

For those who look to Italy’s experience with social distancing policy as a means to contain the spread of COVID-19, the recent peak in the daily number of new cases is noteworthy.


Flattening the Curves

March 27, 2020


  • Stopping the pandemic spread while minimizing the steep economic cost is the key policy challenge
  • Policymakers have acted quickly with strong measures to backstop the economy and credit markets
  • Policy stimulus should strive to prevent a further deterioration in demand and unemployment, but policymakers cannot offset the negative supply-side impact of a prolonged economic lockdown
  • The macro outlook depends on the duration of social distancing to contain the epidemic
  • Long horizon investors should continue periodic portfolio rebalancing and ensure adequate liquidity to avoid selling assets at distressed prices

Todd's latest from social:

March 19, 2020

As governments face the largest budget deficits since the Great Recession, strong fundamentals are important to underpin a “whatever it takes” fiscal policy response. Amongst the G-7 countries, Canada and Germany have the most fiscal space to accommodate larger budget deficits as needed.


Market turbulence follows coronavirus and oil price war

March 12, 2020

The worsening coronavirus outbreak and oil price war have sharply increased financial market turbulence. The number of coronavirus cases is expected to rise sharply over coming weeks in North America and Europe based on the views of respected epidemiologists. Even if fatalities remain low, essential measures to contain the virus are expected to disrupt global supply chains and weaken consumer confidence. Compounding the economic shock from the coronavirus is Saudi Arabia’s oil price war, whichcomes at an inopportune time for the global economy. Ramping up oil supply to boost market share and displace US shaleproducers has increased credit risk in the high yield energy sector.

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